Fine‐Scale Population, Emissions, and Atmospheric Dynamics Drive Health Disparity Outcomes From Energy Transition

Vollständiger Abstract

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Abstract Transitioning to a low‐carbon energy system can provide air quality and health co‐benefits. While the aggregate effects are intuitively clear, the distributions across subnational regions and population groups and their drivers are complex and less intuitive. Here we use an integrated energy‐atmospheric‐health modeling framework for the United States to analyze what drives the distribution of health‐co‐benefits caused by energy transitions. We find that the nationwide health effects mainly depend on macro‐scale factors, while the disparity outcomes are further affected by micro‐scale factors related to emissions, atmospheric processes, and population vulnerability. For instance, in a Net‐Zero 2050 scenario, prioritizing emission reductions near minority populations reduces the national average White‐Black disparity in ambient PM 2.5 exposure to 0.2 μg/m 3 , compared with 0.6 μg/m 3 when emission reductions follow current spatial patterns. Using race‐specific rather than uniform exposure‐response relationships doubles the estimated White‐Black disparity in PM 2.5 attributable mortality rates under both Net‐Zero scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of resolving fine‐scale patterns to understand the distributional effects of energy transitions on pollution and health.