The impact of HIV and antiretroviral therapy on cervical cancer burden in Zambia: a modelling study

Vollständiger Abstract

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Abstract Cervical cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among women in Zambia, where widespread HIV infection elevates cervical cancer risk. However, HIV’s contribution to Zambia’s cervical cancer burden and the extent to which antiretroviral therapy (ART) has mitigated this burden, remain poorly quantified. We adapted HPVsim, an existing open-source mathematical model simulating human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer natural history, to capture the dual burden of cervical cancer and HIV in Zambian women. We extended HPVsim by incorporating country-specific HIV incidence data and modeled how HIV alters cervical disease progression through CD4 cell count-dependent modification of HPV susceptibility and disease severity. We calibrated the model to GLOBOCAN cervical cancer estimates and cervical cancer incidence rate ratios by HIV status estimated from the Zambian Cancer Registry. We estimated that by 2025, 49.9% of all cervical cancer cases in Zambia could be attributed to HIV co-infection. Although ART prevented at least an estimated 5.4% of cervical cancer cases nationally and 8.7% of cases among women with HIV, HIV remains a major driver of the cervical cancer burden. HIV-stratified prevention strategies will be essential for Zambia to achieve the World Health Organization’s cervical cancer elimination targets.