Iran's Revolutionary Situation and Digital Authoritarianism: 1979 vs. 2026

Vollständiger Abstract

Worum geht es in dieser Arbeit?

Abstract In December 2025, Iran faced weeks of mass protests. However, the Islamic Republic survived after imposing a near‐total internet blackout and a violent crackdown, with reported deaths in the thousands and tens of thousands arrested. Predictions that the regime could collapse prompt a central question: when does protest under digital authoritarianism become a revolution? This article argues that a revolutionary situation requires four mechanisms: coordination of private opposition into mass demonstrations, elite fracture, defections in the security apparatus, and an information environment allowing the opposition to disseminate ideas and coordinate collective action. Different configurations produce four possible outcomes: the containment of mass protest, prolonged contention, negotiated political change, or revolution. The study compares the 1979 and 2026 protest cycles. It finds that all four mechanisms were active during the Islamic Revolution; by contrast, in 2026, only one—coordination of private opposition into mass demonstrations—was partially activated. A revolutionary situation did not emerge because the state's coercive capacity remained intact, elite fracture did not emerge, and digital authoritarianism disrupted the coordination necessary for escalation.