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A Bayesian Model for Estimation of Virus Reduction in Potable Reuse Treatment Trains and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Waterborne Viral Pathogens

Jack F. Schijven, Peter F. M. Teunis, Walter Q. Betancourt

Risk Analysis · 2026

Vollständiger Abstract

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ABSTRACT Understanding virus occurrence and reduction at advanced treatment facilities for potable water reuse constitutes a high‐priority research need to protect human health and to enhance available water supply alternatives. The objectives were to (1) determine log reduction values (LRVs) of 15 viruses by advanced wastewater treatment; (2) evaluate suitability of the final wastewater effluent for potable reuse; (3) evaluate viruses or groups of viruses as indicators of wastewater treatment efficiency. Reduction data of seven human enteric and eight surrogate viruses were obtained from three potable reuse facilities. LRVs were estimated using a Bayesian model that can handle nondetects and identifies groups of viruses with similar LRVs. Quantitative microbial risk assessments were conducted for adenoviruses, enteroviruses, and noroviruses GI and GII. Mean total LRVs ranged from 5.4 to 11 log 10. Required mean total LRVs for the four pathogenic viruses ranged from 11.3 to 13.4 log 10 . Both male‐specific and somatic coliphages, detected by classical enumeration of infectious virions, are recommended as indicator viruses. Of the pathogenic viruses, adenovirus was found to be the most effective indicator for virus reduction. At all facilities, infection risks were higher than 10 −4 per person per year, implying that the finished water may not comply with existing safety standards. Infection risks may have been overestimated by 2–4 log 10 because only a fraction of the detected virus was infectious. Nevertheless, achieved LRVs were still too low and given the uncertainty on infectious virus fraction, one may accept overestimation of risks to stay on the safe side.

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Publikationsdaten

Autor:innen
Jack F. Schijven, Peter F. M. Teunis, Walter Q. Betancourt
Quelle
Risk Analysis
Publikation
2026-01-01
Band / Ausgabe
Nicht angegeben
Seiten
Nicht angegeben
ISSN / ISBN
0272-4332, 1539-6924
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Jack F. Schijven, Peter F. M. Teunis, Walter Q. Betancourt (2026). A Bayesian Model for Estimation of Virus Reduction in Potable Reuse Treatment Trains and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Waterborne Viral Pathogens. Risk Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70343
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