Material insecurity drives support for progressive policy despite also reducing faith in government: evidence from UK voters in 2024

Vollständiger Abstract

Worum geht es in dieser Arbeit?

Material insecurity predicts support for right-wing populist parties, leading some to conclude that ambitious progressive policy programmes are electorally unviable in contexts of widespread economic anxiety. Yet an alternative scholarly tradition holds that material insecurity should increase, not decrease, demand for redistribution and social insurance, which are at the core of progressive policy offers. This article makes two contributions. First, we present a single-item measure of subjective material insecurity, perceived risk of destitution, that is suitable for cross-sectional surveys. Second, drawing on a survey of 1,988 UK adults conducted in January 2024, we test whether perceived risk of destitution predicts support for an unambiguously progressive policy programme across ten domestic policy areas, presented without party label. Perceived risk of destitution is robustly positively associated with support for the programme, even after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, prior voting behaviour and left–right self-placement. At the same time, it is negatively associated with faith in government, which partially suppresses the positive direct association with programme support. The findings are consistent both with the redistribution literature on welfare-state preferences, and with the populism literature on the political consequences of economic risk: material insecurity raises the demand for redistributive and progressive policies, but also the resonance of arguments for disrupting the current political class.