Operational epidemiology of the early phase of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda

Vollständiger Abstract

Worum geht es in dieser Arbeit?

The 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda occurred in a fragile cross-border setting marked by delayed recognition, diagnostic uncertainty, insecurity, population mobility, community mistrust, and healthcare-worker exposure. We conducted a retrospective operational epidemiology study using official situation reports, public health declarations, ministry statements, WHO and Africa CDC updates, cross-border communiqués, and selected partner statements. This analysis reflects publicly available data from the early outbreak period, with the primary DRC data lock on 27 May 2026 and Uganda and regional triangulation through 29 May 2026. We reconstructed the early timeline, described epidemiological and geographic progression, quantified response indicators, and applied a transparent health-zone prioritization framework. The earliest documented symptom onset was 24 April 2026. The Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale (INRB) detected non-Zaire ebolavirus in eight of 13 samples on 14 May, giving a 20-day symptom-onset-to-first-laboratory-detection interval; species-level Bundibugyo virus confirmation and official declaration followed on 15 May. By the DRC data lock on 27 May, 125 confirmed cases and 17 confirmed deaths had been reported, giving a confirmed case fatality ratio of 13.6%. DRC also reported 906 suspected cases and 223 suspected deaths, giving a suspected fatality proportion of 24.6%. Confirmed cases expanded from three to 13 health zones across three provinces within 12 days. Ituri province accounted for 110 confirmed cases (88.0%); Bunia, Rwampara, and Mongbwalu health zones together contributed 90 cases (72.0%). Uganda reported nine confirmed cases and one death by 29 May. Operational pressure included 2,635 listed contacts in DRC, 436 contacts under follow-up in Uganda, and 126 of 774 collected samples (16.3%) pending testing in DRC. Healthcare workers represented 16 of 125 DRC confirmed cases (12.8%) and at least three of nine Uganda cases (33.3%). Applying the health-zone prioritization framework, Rwampara, Mongbwalu, and Bunia were classified as higher priority health zones. Excluding confirmed burden did not change any health-zone tier; data classification confidence was high for 10 zones and moderate for three. Within this early operational snapshot, outbreak visibility reflected both transmission and operational factors, particularly detection delay, laboratory backlog, cross-border movement, healthcare-linked exposure, and community trust or security incidents. The framework provides a transparent basis for rapid decision support during an outbreak’s early phase by directing surveillance, laboratory, case-management, infection prevention and control, contact-tracing, and community-engagement resources toward health zones where multiple operational risks converge.