Оценка бюджетной эффективности федеральных программ развития курортов юга России в условиях санкционных ограничений

Vollständiger Abstract

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Introduction: The redirection of tourist flows to the domestic market under the sanctions pressure of 2022–2025 has led to a significant increase in budget financing of resort territories in southern Russia. The total volume of federal allocations for the national project "Tourism and Hospitality Industry" for 2021–2024 exceeded 200 billion rubles; however, the question of the budgetary return on these investments remains insufficiently studied. Objective: To quantify the budgetary efficiency of federal programs for the development of resorts in southern Russia for the period 2021–2025 and to identify structural changes in the financing model caused by sanctions restrictions. Materials and methods: The study is based on official data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Federal Treasury, and consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for 2019–2025. Budget analysis methods, coefficient approach to efficiency assessment, and correlation-regression analysis were applied. The sample covers three key resort regions: Krasnodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, and the Republic of Crimea. Statistical processing was performed using SPSS Statistics v.26 with Mann—Whitney U-test and Spearman rank correlation coefficient (p<0.05). Results: The budgetary return coefficient in Krasnodar Krai was 1.87 (2024) versus 1.42 (2021); in Stavropol Krai — 1.63 versus 1.18; in the Republic of Crimea — 0.94 versus 0.71. The budget expenditure multiplier for resort territories reached 3.4 in 2024. A strong positive correlation (rs=0.89; p<0.01) was established between federal financing volumes and tourist flow growth. Conclusions: The budgetary efficiency of federal programs demonstrates a steady positive trend: the average growth of the budgetary return coefficient is 31.7% over a four-year period. Sanctions restrictions paradoxically acted as a catalyst for accelerated development of domestic resort infrastructure.