Оценка результативности муниципальных программ поддержки санаторно-курортного комплекса города Сочи в постолимпийский период (2014–2024)

Vollständiger Abstract

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Introduction: The sanatorium-resort complex of Sochi, which accounts for 75% of the municipal gross product, underwent a fundamental transformation following the 2014 Olympic Games. Cumulative tourist flow over the post-Olympic decade totaled 72.2 million visitors, while the municipal budget potential increased from 10.6 to 64.0 billion rubles. Despite massive public investment, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of municipal support programs remains fragmented. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of municipal programs supporting the sanatorium-resort complex of Sochi in the post-Olympic period (2014–2024) using integrated quantitative indicators. Materials and methods: The study is based on panel data from Rosstat, Sochi city administration reports, BusinesStat analytics, and the Association of Health Tourism for 2014–2024. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) using the BCC model, index method, and correlation-regression analysis were applied. A system of 12 performance indicators across three dimensions (infrastructure, economic, and balneological) was developed. Results: The integrated program effectiveness index was 0.87 in 2024 (threshold value: 0.75). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of tourist flow reached +4.5%, while collective accommodation facility occupancy increased from 72 to 89%. The fiscal multiplier of the resort sector was 1.34 rubles of tax revenue per 1 ruble of program expenditure. A statistically significant correlation (r=0.91; p<0.01) was found between program expenditures and tourist flow growth. However, only 38% of sanatorium facilities completed modernization, and the share of balneological procedures in the service structure declined from 24 to 17%. Conclusions. Municipal programs demonstrate high effectiveness in infrastructure and tourist flow segments, yet the therapeutic component of the resort product remains underfunded. Program priority adjustment toward strengthening the balneological specialization is required.