Machine Learning–Based First-Trimester Antenatal Risk Prediction for Adverse Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes: Multicenter Model Development Study

Vollständiger Abstract

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Abstract Background Maternal outcomes remain inequitable worldwide. Severe morbidity persists, and current risk assessment tools are largely arbitrary, focusing on biomedical factors while overlooking social determinants of health. There is a need for data-driven AI models to improve early pregnancy risk identification and management. Objective The study aimed to develop and internally validate first-trimester AI-based antenatal risk assessment models across three geographically and socioethnically diverse populations (Sweden, Chile, and Singapore) and to compare their performance with existing clinical risk assessment strategies. Methods We conducted a retrospective population-based study using routinely collected first-trimester data from over 700,000 pregnancies from Sweden, Chile, and Singapore. Separate machine learning models predicting a composite of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were trained and internally validated for each population. Input variables were limited to information available at or before 14 weeks’ gestation. Model discrimination, measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, was compared with corresponding proxies for real-world first-trimester risk assessment approaches in each setting. Model interpretability was assessed using Shapley additive explanations. Results The prevalence of the composite adverse outcome was 10.40% (75,647/727,354) in Sweden, 21.94% (1302/5934) in Chile, and 16.25% (6145/37,813) in Singapore. In Sweden, the guideline-based risk assessment achieved an AUROC of 0.53, compared with 0.65 for the LightGBM (light gradient boosting machine) model ( P