TRADE WARS AND THE TARIFF POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA: IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Vollständiger Abstract

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The article examines the current stage of the trade confrontation between the United States and China and the position of developing countries within it. The relevance of the study stems from a fundamental change in the architecture of world trade that unfolded during 2025–2026. For the first time since the creation of the multilateral trading system, its largest participant has abandoned the most-favoured-nation principle as the default basis of its import regime and replaced it with a system of country-specific duties negotiated bilaterally and backed by the threat of further escalation. Developing countries find themselves in a paradoxical situation: they are not parties to the dispute between Washington and Beijing, yet they absorb a considerable share of its costs through several distinct transmission mechanisms, ranging from the loss of preferential access to the American market to the redirection of Chinese export flows into their domestic markets. At the same time, the confrontation creates selective opportunities for economies capable of attracting relocated production and capturing market shares vacated by Chinese suppliers, which makes the balance of gains and losses far from uniform across the developing world. The purpose of the article is to identify and systematize the channels through which the tariff policies of the two largest economies affect trade, industrial development and macroeconomic stability of developing countries, and to substantiate the policy responses available to these states. The research draws on official statistics and analytical materials of international organizations, legal acts and judicial decisions of the United States, and recent academic literature on the economics of trade wars. The methodological framework combines historical and logical analysis of the evolution of the conflict, comparative analysis of tariff regimes, elements of PESTEL analysis applied to the external environment of developing economies, and a structural approach to mapping regulatory change. The article is intended for researchers of international economic relations, trade policymakers and practitioners engaged in foreign economic activity