How advances in machine learning drive early detection and risk prediction of early-onset colorectal cancer

Vollständiger Abstract

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Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), defined as colorectal cancer diagnosed before age 50, is rising across high- and middle-income settings whilst organised screening stays anchored to older age thresholds. Blood-based liquid biopsy, combined with machine learning, is the most plausible route to early detection in this group because it does not depend on bowel preparation, endoscopy capacity, or adherence to stool-based testing. The gap is structural: incidence climbs fastest in the population below the age at which any guideline-endorsed modality is offered. The analytical challenge is that early-stage tumour-derived signals in plasma are low in abundance and distributed across heterogeneous molecular layers: circulating tumour DNA mutations, aberrant methylation, cfDNA fragmentomics, and small non-coding RNA. Machine learning converts these into a single calibrated probability. This review examines where artificial intelligence (AI)-driven liquid biopsy genuinely adds diagnostic value in EOCRC, distinguishes components in which learned models are decorative from those in which they are mechanistically necessary, and identifies the validation deficit separating research cohorts from deployable clinical tools. It summarises the first-generation tools used clinically for early detection and post-treatment monitoring, then considers analytes from exosome-bound microRNAs to long-read whole-genome sequencing of circulating plasma DNA, which reads cytosine modification natively, resolves methylation and fragmentation on single molecules, and characterises structural events short reads cannot anchor. Any analyte can feed a learned model, but more diverse input yields better discrimination. The central argument is that approved, guideline-included blood tests were validated in populations aged 45 and above, and their performance in younger patients cannot be assumed.