Cost Control in EPC Public Works Using a System Dynamics Model Embedded with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Reasoning: A Case Study of the Urumqi Civic Center

Vollständiger Abstract

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Cost control in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) public works is shaped by interacting drivers, nonlinear feedback, and qualitative judgments. Existing studies usually apply the three relevant method families separately: DEMATEL-ISM maps causal structure but does not propagate hesitation-aware expert judgments into cost trajectories; fuzzy systems represent uncertainty but commonly lack a verified causal hierarchy; and system dynamics (SDs) capture dynamic accumulation but often rely on crisp inputs. The resulting absence of a traceable causal screening to uncertainty to dynamic cost link is the specific gap addressed in this study. We therefore develop a transparent three-stage pipeline combining the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory–Interpretive Structural Modeling (DEMATEL-ISM) method, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy reasoning (TIFR), and SDs. DEMATEL-ISM identifies the causal hierarchy; TIFR represents membership, non-membership, and hesitation in design complexity and human–technology synergy judgments; and SDs evaluate stage-specific cost trajectories. Recalculation from the supplied 17 × 17 direct influence matrix produced a six-level hierarchy in which senior management decision-making capability and the level of integration occupy the two deepest driving levels. For the Urumqi Civic Center case, the baseline terminal cost absolute percentage error was 0.492%. A coordinated intervention scenario shifted the simulated terminal cost by CNY 12.1243 million (6.1%) relative to the baseline; this is a model-based scenario difference, not an observed project saving. Integration had the largest simulated effects on design and transportation costs, whereas senior management decision-making capability had the largest effects on procurement and construction costs. Security cost curves showed a complementary pattern between managerial capability and workers’ professional competence, but no statistical interaction effect is claimed. The framework is intended for within-case scenario comparison and intervention prioritization; multi-project and time-series validation remains necessary.