Evaluating the Performance of Mammogram-Based AI Risk Model in Predicting Subsequent Breast Cancer in Women with a Prior History of Breast Cancer

Vollständiger Abstract

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Objectives: Women with a history of breast cancer are at increased risk of developing subsequent breast cancer, including ipsilateral recurrence and contralateral new primary breast cancer. This study evaluated the discriminatory performance of a mammogram-based artificial intelligence (AI) risk model for predicting subsequent breast cancer within one year after a negative screening mammogram. Methods: This enriched retrospective case–control study included women with a prior history of breast cancer who underwent screening digital breast tomosynthesis between January 2018 and December 2023 at three affiliated academic breast imaging centers. Digital breast tomosynthesis examinations classified as BI-RADS 1 or 2 were retrospectively analyzed using the ProFound AI® Risk model version 1.0 to estimate 1-year breast cancer risk. Patients were classified according to whether they developed subsequent breast cancer within one year of the index screening examination. Model discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated at an exploratory cutoff selected by maximizing the Youden index. Results: The study included 96 women (mean age, 65.3 ± 8.7 years), of whom 32 developed subsequent breast cancer within one year, and 64 did not. The mean AI risk score was significantly higher in the subsequent breast cancer group than in the control group (1.18 ± 0.59 vs. 0.49 ± 0.41; p < 0.001). The AI model demonstrated an AUC of 0.824 (95% CI: 0.728–0.921). At an exploratory cutoff of 0.39, sensitivity was 81.3%, specificity was 76.6%, PPV was 63.4%, and NPV was 89.1%. In separate exploratory analyses, the AUC was 0.790 (95% CI: 0.641–0.939) for ipsilateral recurrence and 0.860 (95% CI: 0.752–0.974) for contralateral new primary breast cancer. AI risk scores were not significantly correlated with tumor size or age at subsequent breast cancer diagnosis. Conclusions: In this enriched retrospective case–control study, higher mammogram-based AI risk scores were associated with subsequent breast cancer within one year after a negative screening examination. The model demonstrated discriminatory performance for both ipsilateral recurrence and contralateral new primary breast cancer; however, these analyses were exploratory. Because the cohort was enriched for subsequent breast cancer events, the reported predictive values are specific to the study sample and should not be extrapolated to routine surveillance populations. Larger prospective cohorts are needed to validate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.