Regional Water Resource Carrying Capacity Assessment and Barrier Factor Diagnosis Based on Combined Weighted-TOPSIS Model

Vollständiger Abstract

Worum geht es in dieser Arbeit?

Water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) assessment provides an important basis for regional socioeconomic development planning and water resource management. In this study, an 18-indicator WRCC evaluation system was constructed for the Eighth Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps based on the Supply–Water-use Efficiency–Demand Pressure–Economy and Society–Regulation (SWDER) framework. Indicator weights were determined using a combined method integrating the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation method and the entropy weight method. The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution was then applied to evaluate WRCC across six irrigation districts during 2015–2025 and under different scenarios in 2030. An obstacle factor diagnosis model was further used to identify the main limiting factors and support differentiated management recommendations. The results showed that: (1) the regulation and ecological constraints subsystem was the dominant criterion layer affecting WRCC in the Eighth Division, and industrial value added, ecological water use ratio, and supply–demand ratio were the key high-weight indicators; (2) WRCC in the Eighth Division showed a slow upward trend from 2015 to 2025, with the average evaluation value of the six irrigation districts increasing from 0.2325 to 0.2543, although phased declines occurred in 2020 and 2022. Marked differences were observed among irrigation districts, with the Ningjiahe and Shihezi irrigation districts generally showing higher carrying capacity levels than the other districts; and (3) under both the normal scenario and the rigid water resource constraint scenario in 2030, the average WRCC of the study area increased compared with 2025, but inter-district differentiation remained significant. Except for the Mosuowan Irrigation District, the WRCC evaluation values of the other irrigation districts were lower under the rigid constraint scenario than under the normal scenario. These results provide a scientific basis for rigid water resource constraint management, optimized water resource allocation, and differentiated regulation of irrigation districts in arid regions.