Assessing the Effectiveness of Policy Measures to Accelerate Mining Dump Truck Electrification: A System Dynamics Approach

Vollständiger Abstract

Worum geht es in dieser Arbeit?

Global pressure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the Net Zero Emissions commitment is accelerating the transition from traditional diesel-powered equipment to electric machinery, including in Indonesia’s mining sector. Despite progress in adopting diesel-powered dump trucks in mining operations, electrification efforts have largely focused on passenger vehicles, leaving a regulatory gap for heavy mining equipment. This study develops a system dynamics model integrated with Bass diffusion theory to simulate the adoption of electric mining dump trucks in Indonesian mining from 2025 to 2060. Five scenarios were constructed by varying the promotion rate and market growth, and two policy instruments were tested: import duty exemption and a preferential electricity tariff for charging facilities. Results indicate that import duty exemption consistently outperformed the electricity tariff discount across all configurations. These findings suggest that the government should prioritize promotional and regulatory signaling programs.