Middle East Policy
Iran's Revolutionary Situation and Digital Authoritarianism: 1979 vs. 2026
Abstract In December 2025, Iran faced weeks of mass protests. However, the Islamic Republic survived after imposing a near‐total internet blackout and a violent crackdown, with reported deaths in the thousands and tens of thousands arrested. Predictions that the regime could collapse prompt a central question: when does protest under digital authoritarianism become a revolution? This article argues that a revolutionary situation requires four mechanisms: coordination of private opposition into mass demonstrations, …